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The following extracts are from the article "GCSE results 2020: A look at the grades proposed by schools" (15 JUN 20 PDF):
"... at the top level, this year’s teacher-assessed grades are higher than those awarded in 2019 exams. In every subject we’ve looked at, the average grade proposed for 2020 is higher than the average grade awarded last year. In most subjects, the difference is between 0.3 and 0.6 grades ... Of the 24 subjects we’ve looked at, in 10 of them there’s a difference of half a grade or more between the average proposed grade for 2020 and the average grade awarded in 2019." [Example: English Language Results Comparison graph]"
"Consequently, it seems likely that Ofqual and the exam boards will have to apply statistical moderation to the grades submitted by schools, bringing them down on average."
Other extracts:
"Over the past fortnight, secondary schools in England have submitted centre assessment grades for their Year 11 pupils to the exam boards. This has happened in response to GCSEs being cancelled this year. Coming up with these grades has been a huge undertaking for teachers – one done with minimal guidance and training."
"The next step is moderation by exam boards, before grades are issued to pupils in August. But an exercise carried out by FFT gives an indication of the challenges facing Ofqual and the exam boards. Between 28 April and 1 June, FFT ran a statistical moderation service which allowed schools to submit preliminary centre assessment grades they were proposing for their pupils."
"... take a look at some of the main findings from the service, based on the data of more than 1,900 schools – over half of all state secondaries in England – which had submitted results when the service ended on 1 June. That’s the date on which the window for secondary schools to submit their proposed grades to the exam boards opened – though it’s worth saying that we don’t know if schools will have submitted the same data to the exam boards as that which we’re analysing here. They may have used the reports they were provided with to amend the mix of grades they were proposing."
"... at the top level, this year’s teacher-assessed grades are higher than those awarded in 2019 exams. In every subject we’ve looked at, the average grade proposed for 2020 is higher than the average grade awarded last year. In most subjects, the difference is between 0.3 and 0.6 grades ... Of the 24 subjects we’ve looked at, in 10 of them there’s a difference of half a grade or more between the average proposed grade for 2020 and the average grade awarded in 2019." [Example: English Language Results Comparison graph]
"Consequently, it seems likely that Ofqual and the exam boards will have to apply statistical moderation to the grades submitted by schools, bringing them down on average. This will be a hugely complex task, the likes of which have never been done before. As well as proposed grades, schools were required to submit rank orderings of their pupils, and it seems likely that these will be used to shift some pupils down from one grade to the next."
"Reflecting on the difficult task faced by schools. It’s worth taking a moment to consider the difficulty of the task that schools had, and think about why their proposed grades were higher than those awarded last year. All things said and done, then, schools have had an incredibly difficult task – albeit one matched in difficulty by that now facing the exam boards and Ofqual."
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